This site uses cookies to measure how you use the website so it can be updated and improved based on your needs and also uses cookies to help remember the notifications you’ve seen, like this one, so that we don’t show them to you again. If you could also tell us a little bit about yourself, this information will help us understand how we can support you better and make this site even easier for you to use and navigate.

Utility of combinations of biomarkers, cognitive markers, and risk factors to predict conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease in patients in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative


Gomar, Jesus J., Bobes-Bascaran, Maria T., Conejero-Goldberg, Concepcion, Davies, Peter, Goldberg, Terry E.


Archives of General Psychiatry, Volume: 68, No.: 9, Pages.: 961-969

Year of Publication



Context: Biomarkers have become increasingly important in understanding neurodegenerative processes associated with Alzheimer disease. Markers include regional brain volumes, cerebrospinal fluid measures of pathological Aβ1-42 and total tau, cognitive measures, and individual risk factors. Objective: To determine the discriminative utility of different classes of biomarkers and cognitive markers by examining their ability to predict a change in diagnostic status from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease. Design: Longitudinal study. Participants: We analyzed the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database to study patients with mild cognitive impairment who converted to Alzheimer disease (n = 116) and those who did not convert (n = 204) within a 2-year period. We determined the predictive utility of 25 variables from all classes of markers, biomarkers, and risk factors in a series of logistic regression models and effect size analyses. Setting: The Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative public database. Outcome Measures: Primary outcome measures were odds ratios, pseudo- R²s, and effect sizes. Results: In comprehensive stepwise logistic regression models that thus included variables from all classes of markers, the following baseline variables predicted conversion within a 2-year period: 2 measures of delayed verbal memory and middle temporal lobe cortical thickness. In an effect size analysis that examined rates of decline, change scores for biomarkers were modest for 2 years, but a change in an everyday functional activities measure (Functional Assessment Questionnaire) was considerably larger. Decline in scores on the Functional Assessment Questionnaire and Trail Making Test, part B, accounted for approximately 50% of the predictive variance in conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease. Conclusions: Cognitive markers at baseline were more robust predictors of conversion than most biomarkers. Longitudinal analyses suggested that conversion appeared to be driven less by changes in the neurobiologic trajectory of the disease than by a sharp decline in functional ability and, to a lesser extent, by declines in executive function. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved). (journal abstract)

Bibtex Citation

@article{Gomar_2011, doi = {10.1001/archgenpsychiatry.2011.96}, url = {}, year = 2011, month = {sep}, publisher = {American Medical Association ({AMA})}, volume = {68}, number = {9}, pages = {961}, author = {Jesus J. Gomar}, title = {Utility of Combinations of Biomarkers, Cognitive Markers, and Risk Factors to Predict Conversion From Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer Disease in Patients in the Alzheimer{textquotesingle}s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative}, journal = {Arch Gen Psychiatry} }


alzheimer disease, alzheimer’s disease, biological markers, biomarkers, cognitive impairment, cognitive markers, mild cognitive impairment, neuroimaging, risk factors

Countries of Study


Types of Dementia

Alzheimer’s Disease, Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI)

Types of Study

Cohort Study

Type of Outcomes


Type of Interventions

Diagnostic Target Identification

Diagnostic Targets

Neuroimaging (e.g. MRI, PET, CAT etc.)